Quá trình quá độ dân số ở Việt Nam: lịch sử và lô-gíc

Abstract

Via the Historical – Logical approach, this paper analyzes the model of population transition in Vietnam from 1935 to 2016. Results indicate that although Vietnam experienced all described periods of population transition in theory, the population transition model in our country also owns special features. First of all, the transition in birth rate comes over 20 years earlier than that in death one, and the post-transition period is predicted to occur after 2049. Secondly, the figures of birth, death and population growth speed in Vietnam in the transition period is higher than those in theory. The cause of this difference lies in our inheritance of modern medical achievements and technical, fi- nancial supports from international organizations for the upgradation of the population quality after exiting two wars at those first years of XX century. Moreover, the progress of urbanization, educa- tional improvement and medical service upgradation, on one hand, help the longevity increase; but also on the other hand enable the people to restrict their own birth rate, which boosts the population transition in Vietnam’s current scenario - with an unfinished industrialization period.