Volatility of Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade in Asia

Pham Phat Tien * , & Tran Ba Tri

* Correspondence: Pham Phat Tien (email: pptien@ctu.edu.vn)

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Received: 05 Sep 2023
Revised: 21 Nov 2023
Accepted: 21 Nov 2023
Published: 27 Feb 2026
DOI: 10.58810/vhujs.11.1.2026.737
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How to Cite
Pham, T. P., & Tran, T. B. (2026). Volatility of Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade in Asia. Van Hien University Journal of Science 11(1), 45-63.
Issue
Volume 11 - Issue 1 (2026)
Section
Economics

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Abstract

The paper examines the empirical relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade in 12 Asian countries from 2013m1 to 2019m12. The Pedroni test, Pooled mean group method, and Dumitrescu-Hurlin test are employed to examine the relationship between variables. The findings give that most pairs variables between exchange rate and foreign trade are cointegration and correlation, except the pair of foreign trade and currency per USD, but it is adjusted to equilibrium significantly for the long-term. Moreover, we explore that the positive relationship between exchange rate and foreign trade. Although a few pairs of variables are uni- or non-directional causality, most cases are significant bi-directional causality. The intensity effect from exchange rate to foreign trade is larger than the opposite direction.
Keywords: exchange rate volatility, foreign trade, Asian countries

Article Details

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